Apple's Bright Holiday Forecast

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Computers is sitting pretty in the catbird seat as holiday shoppers are expected to continue their run on Apple's iPods and the recently released MacBook with Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) Core 2 Duo processors.

Apple officials predicted at summer's end that a "halo effect" would take hold as Windows computer users purchased iPods and came back to buy Apple computer products.

Industry watchers agree that successful nationwide television marketing -- combined with increased sales of Apple computer and music products since the second quarter of this year -- put Apple in excellent position for gains with holiday shoppers.

Soaring Sales

"Sales are going to be higher this buying season than in previous seasons. The street perspective for Apple is now high," Dan de Grandpre, founder of dealnews.com told MacNewsWorld. "The iPod Shuffle is going to be one of the best gifts to get this year. It is definitely a fashion statement to get a new one."

All of Apple's efforts on the iPod are paying off with sales of its computer line, according to de Granpre. "The Mac Apple line is a good mixture of models that are all selling briskly," he said.

There is no doubt that the sales forecast for Apple this holiday season is very rosy, noted Clem Chambers, CEO of stocks and investment for the Advances Financial Network.

"Apple is very nearly back to its all-time stock market high, valuing the company at $70 billion. After a nasty correction during the summer, Apple has jumped back up to $84," Chambers said.

Tumble Possible

Despite the continuing growth in Apple's financial health, there are warning signs that Apple is riding a trend that cannot continue indefinitely.

Sales analysis showed that Apple sales earlier this year marked 5.3 million iPods and 1.07 million Macintosh computers. That reflects about a 500 percent increase in iPod sales and a 40 percent hike in Mac sales over last year's holiday buying frenzy.

However, some predict that such double-digit growth cannot continue, Chambers included. Despite this upwards trajectory, he said the charts seem to show the stock forming a classic double top or head and shoulders.

"This could signal bad news as it suggests another possible tumble," cautioned Chambers. The likelihood of that happening before the end of the current buying season is very slim, though.

That's because the holiday period is a time of high expectations among companies with hot products. For instance, Apple's video-capable iPod and the iPod nano were white hot last year. Buying trends predict similar success this year.

Driving Sales

Consumers are viewing Apple computer products as a user-friendly alternative to Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) Windows operation system, explained de Grandpre. Shipments of Macintosh computers rose 33 percent this year, almost triple the 12 percent rise in overall U.S. sales of personal computers, according to market research company IDC.

"The reasons are basic," said de Granpre. "Just as the successful television commercials say, Apples are simplicity and are easier to use than a Windows PC. This marketing approach is helping Apple in expanding its user base."

Apple's clever national marketing strategy, based on the Mac versus Windows characters in the popular television ads, is converting to mom and pop sales, he claimed.

"People who are new to computers are choosing Macs for their ease of use," de Grandpre said.

Battle Lines Drawn

The battle lines between Microsoft and Apple are being drawn up in several different territories. One area is music supremacy. Microsoft has just launched Zune to rival the iPod.

"[Microsoft has] tried this before, of course, but this time the software giant is looking to imitate Apple's very own business model," Chambers noted.

Marketing cool aside, Microsoft's offering has received a catalog of criticism, he added. Critics have blasted the Redmond clan with everything from the hardware seeming a little rushed to complaints about its bulkiness and poor battery life.

Meanwhile, product additions and revamps continue to prolong the iPod's shelf-life, Chambers said. "This will probably prove too much for the Zune, especially when Apple has a plethora of iPod products at its disposal," he predicted.

However, on the console-front, Microsoft could be winning the battle for consumer approval. Its Xbox Live online video game service is set to go live on Nov. 22.

"Pricing details for the service, which will allow users with broadband to send text and voice messages to each other, watch movie trailers and other product demonstrations, are sketchy, but what isn't in any doubt is that Apple's 'iTV' compact set-top box won't be available until early next year," Chambers said.

OS Confuses Predictions

The ultimate determiner of which computing product wins out is blurred by the race to the new operating system. If Apple can capitalize on its halo effect with a brand new OS along with its already-released Intel-based computer, it could steal much of Microsoft's thunder over the new Windows Vista OS.

"Add into the equation the race to the finish for Vista and Leopard, Microsoft and Apple's respective yet-to-be-launched operating systems, and the picture is even more speculative and confusing," Chambers concluded.

All things considered, he does not believe Microsoft will be able to pack a big enough punch to impact the 'Santa effect' for Apple.

"But 2007 is going to be interesting," he said.