Mac News: AAPL Financial: Broker Sees Leaner Profits for Apple in Q2

For 11 consecutive quarters, Apple has consistently beaten its own guidance. Bernstein Research says the company will do so again when second-quarter results are finalized, but perhaps not by as much as has been expected by outsiders. A weakening U.S. consumer base has cast doubts on Apple's near-term strength.

Shares of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) traded lower on Friday after Bernstein Research questioned whether a weakening U.S. consumer may make it difficult for the company to beat rising expectations for its second-quarter results.

"As it has done for 11 consecutive quarters, we expect Apple's reported revenues and earnings to beat its own guidance," it said, though it said that "revenue upside could be more limited this quarter."

Mac Focus in Q2

Apple is looking for earnings of 94 US cents a share with revenue of $6.8 billion; Bernstein sees earnings of $1.12 a share and revenue of $6.99 billion. The mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial is for earnings of $1.06 a share and revenue of $6.95 billion.

In Apple's second quarter, Bernstein said, investors would likely be focused on sales of the company's Mac computer instead of iPhone or iPod sales.

Mac sales "appear to have remained strong throughout the second quarter," Bernstein said, though "expectations appear to be [high], up to 2.2 million units, which we believe is not a slam dunk given visible weakness among U.S. consumers." Bernstein sees sales of 2.08 million units, which represents 37 percent growth year-over-year.

Bernstein said Apple is at an inflection point for iPhone sales, making the broker uncertain about future sales. "We believe it is likely to start declining due to substitution by music phones," it said.

Any Rocket Fuel for Q3?

Bernstein lowered its 2008 outlook on Apple to $5.25 from $5.27 a share and cut its 2009 view to $6.36 from $6.50 a share. The current analyst consensus is for earnings of $5.15 a share in 2008 earnings with $6.29 a share for 2009. The firm also said it saw "no meaningful sales catalysts for much of [the third quarter]."

Shares of Apple fell 1.3 percent to $152.58 on Friday. The stock is down about 22 percent since the start of the year but up about 68 percent over the past 52 weeks.