Mac News: AAPL Financial: Cautious Guidance Nicks Apple

Cautious Guidance Nicks Apple

By Erika Morphy
MacNewsWorld
07/22/08 12:53 PM PT

Apple did everything right in its third quarter and posted robust earnings and revenue figures that bore that out. Like many other companies, however, Apple cautioned investors that the next quarter won't be as good as previously expected -- and that bit of sobering news caused stock prices to plummet.

By most measures, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) had a banner third quarter. It beat Wall Street's expectations for earnings, posting revenue of US$7.46 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.19 per diluted share. These results compare with revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $0.92 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter.

Sales were brisk, as the earnings indicate: Apple shipped 2.49 million Macintosh computers during this quarter -- a 41 percent increase from the same period last year. It sold 11,011,000 iPods during the quarter, representing a 12 percent unit growth and seven percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. It also moved 717,000 iPhone units this past quarter, compared with 270,000 in the year-ago-quarter.

In short, it was the best June quarter for both revenue and earnings in Apple's history, said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "We set a new record for Mac sales , we think we have a real winner with our new iPhone 3G, and we're busy finishing several more wonderful new products to launch in the coming months."

Cautious Guidance

That was not enough to keep investors from fretting over the cautious guidance the company gave for the next quarter. Apple is predicting revenue of $7.8 billion and earnings of about $1 per share. Analysts had been expecting a quarter that would deliver $8.32 billion and $1.24 per share; the company's stock dropped about 10 percent over the discrepancy.

Besides the cautious guidance, questions are circulating about Steve Jobs' health, which is weighing down stocks, said Frederic Ruffy, the senior options strategist at WhatsTrading.com.

"When asked, the company said his health is a private matter, and he has no plans to step down," Ruffy told MacNewsWorld. "Nevertheless, the uncertainty about the company's CEO seems to be another reason shares are trading lower Tuesday."

A Lowballer

Nevertheless, the chief reason for the stock drop is the guidance, Motley Fool Senior Analyst Rick Munarriz told MacNewsWorld.

Apple cited economic concerns and lower gross margins as some of the reasons for the lowered outlook, but the company is a "perpetual low-baller," said Munarriz. "Apple routinely beats its own guidance, but if you look at the report, the company is growing where it should be growing."

Mac sales -- and even the iPod, which flatlined in growth last year -- are doing well, he pointed out. "People are buying iPhones instead of BlackBerries, and Macs instead of PCs. Apple is in a dynamic place right now, and it is not feeling the economy weakening."

Still, Apple is not the only tech firm to warn investors that the next quarter will be rough -- and cautious guidance is not something to be dismissed lightly, Munarriz added.

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