Is Macworld Dead?

When Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) dropped its bomb last month, stating that 2009 would mark the company's last Macworld keynote and event, it set off heated gossip -- not only over the health of Apple CEO Steve Jobs, but also over the vitality of Macworld itself.

What might be announced at a Macworld without Jobs? Anything insanely great? Might this have been a moment when someone other than Jobs -- Phil Schiller, senior VP of worldwide product marketing , specifically -- would get a chance to shine?

That question, now that Macworld is over, is easy enough to answer. Apple did not announce anything insanely great, and Schiller didn't have a chance to really shine.

While Apple's 17-inch MacBook Pro is indubitably awesome, it's just a more-of-the-same kind of upgrade that was already expected after the October MacBook unibody redesigns. As for iWork '09 and iLife '09 -- more goodness, to be sure. DRM-free iTunes music? Amazon.com's (Nasdaq: AMZN) already there. Sure, iTunes has the best online store, and this is a critical market shift for the music industry. Still, it's not the kind of announcement that rocks Apple-lovin' consumers who have been buying DRMed iTunes tracks anyway.

The Big Question

Will Macworld survive? That's the question. While Apple-fans might wish for it to thrive, the question of survival simply raises more questions. Did Apple make a rare misstep? Is it possible that Apple really does need Macworld? Are the software, hardware, and accessory vendors that help nurture the Apple ecosystem doomed to face extinction under a cold sky devoid of Apple's warm sun?

And, what's next?

To probe those burning questions, MacNewsWorld contacted four Apple-aware professionals who attended Macworld to get their take.

Macworld, which is an IDG World Expo event, already has the Moscone Center booked in San Francisco for next year's event, so canceling it is pretty much out of the question. In fact, the Macworld Web site now launches with a big splash screen that says, "Macworld 2010" followed by "The start of a new era." It's scheduled for January 4-8, 2010.

One thing, though, is for certain: Change is coming.

"Macworld certainly can't survive in the same way as it exists today," Avi Greengart, a director of research for Current Analysis, told MacNewsWorld, "but there's still a large ecosystem of third-party vendors that need to show off their wares. At the same time, I won't be attending -- the buzz that was generated over Macworld was almost exclusively about the Apple keynote itself. Yu had to see it, and then you'd see the surrounding players."

Apple's past participation in Macworld has involved more-daunting -- and costly -- logistical challenges than simply printing huge banners and setting up a big booth full of hardware.

"Apple really felt that they were being squeezed by this time frame. It's quite far from their two main product cycles. They seem to be on a June-to-June iPhone cycle and a September-October iPod cycle, and Macs are launched whenever they are ready," Greengart explained.

What about whether this move might hurt Apple?

"It's not really going to hurt Apple at all," said Greengart. "Any time they want to throw an event, they can can -- and already do."

What About Macworld?

Whether Macworld can survive without Apple is unclear. Obviously, the event isn't going to go down without a fight.

"I do think Macworld can survive -- the show floor was packed with hundreds of vendors, and while it was great to see Apple's new toys, I spent far more time in the other parts of the show floor," said Rich Mogull, an independent security expert for Securosis.com.

"Also, there is a lot to Expo outside of Apple -- tons of sessions, classes, and social opportunities. We'll have to see what happens next year -- and it could certainly die, but that's far from a foregone conclusion," he told MacNewsWorld.

Of course, the Mac-focused community isn't happy with Apple's decision, Mogull said, but many people seem to understand that few companyies like to let external events define their major release cycles.

Still, is Apple being short-sighted? Isn't this a major blow to software, hardware and accessory vendors who produce Apple-compatible products?

"They are hurting their most faithful users," Mogull said, "and potentially the many vendors that support them."

The Next Anchor

To develop a realistic Macworld prognosis, the big question that needs answering is this: What does the event need to thrive past 2010?

"I think Macworld has a chance of survival without Apple if it does the right things," Sven Rafferty, founder of HyperSven and SvenOnTech blogger, told MacNewsWorld.

"Like a mall, it needs a good anchor. Apple was that anchor, and now it needs to be replaced with another large draw. Whom might that be? IDG needs to figure that out fast. The East Coast Macworld died quickly when Apple left it," Rafferty recalled, "and the same fate may be on the table for 2011 if IDG doesn't respond."

If You Build It, Will They Come?

Despite the obstacles, Rafferty believes Macworld can still draw Apple faithful to Moscone.

"I spoke to quite a few people and asked them that very question," he said. "Many said, 'Yes.' Now the question is, will the vendors come back? I asked that question to every one I visited and interviewed, and every one said they'll watch to see if the other guy commits. The dog chasing his tale issue made a heavy presence with vendors for sure."

Of course, the vendors are much more likely to understand the gravity of Apple's move -- far more so than professionals and Apple enthusiasts. After all, their businesses are on the line. Hundreds of press corps typically descend on Macworld for the Steve Jobs keynote, and without that, there will undoubtably be fewer reporters covering other cool non-Apple products.

"I believe Apple, and Steve Jobs specifically, essentially gave the metaphoric middle finger to all the hardware and software vendors that have supported Apple through a lot of difficult times," said Rafferty.

"The 'We don't need you -- you need us!' mentality was loud and clear with Apple's announcement concerning Macworld," he added. "Many on the floor agreed with me and were a bit disheartened with Apple's decision. What a way to shoot the loyal in the back."

The flip side of Apple's move is that a stronger, less extended, and more focused Apple may very well end up being better for the Apple ecosystem. Each time Apple has to make a preview announcement of a product that's not ready, it risks sticking its neck out for a major failure. Thinking ahead to the day when Steve Jobs retires, it's unlikely that his replacement will be able to placate the irritated masses.

Jobs already works his employees hard. His open letter on the issue -- which he posted after a flurry of rumors about his health -- hinted at an important point: "For the first time in a decade, I'm getting to spend the holiday season with my family, rather than intensely preparing for a Macworld keynote," he wrote.

The timing is a key problem, said Raven Zachary, founder of iPhoneDevCamp and a contributing analyst for the 451 Group.

"Apple always has to wow the Apple market right after the holiday season, and to have to work your employees hard over the holidays -- it's not a very sustainable model for Apple," he told MacNewsWorld.

"The vibe for next year is significantly smaller and with quite a different sort of energy than prior years -- I can see a much smaller exhibition where IDG turns more to content, more to education. Right now, IDG is much more focused on the expo," Zachary said.

Obviously, next year's Macworld will be in January immediately following the holidays, but what about 2011?

"I'm not sure what happens after 2010, but I do think there is value in having an event for the participants in the Apple ecosystem to come together. I've had a tremendous number of meetings because of people here for this event," Zachary said.

"It's important to have something exist where professionals can get together. I will miss Macworld if it indeed comes to an end," he acknowledged, "but I do think there will be some community gathering with some level of vendor support in the future."